Have we finally had enough?

A recent media report suggested that --- at least in North America --- the number of vehicles on the road actually fell in 2009. In other words, there are fewer vehicles operating today than in 2008.

Analysts suggest that this phenomenon is the result of factors such as high gas prices, the expansion of municipal transit systems (an alternative to driving), and even the use of networking websites among teenagers replacing cars as a way of socializing. Some observers think this is first sign of the end of the "love affair" we've all had with our automobiles. Some people are happy about this apparent development; others not so much! For some, the end of the love affair would appear to signal the possibility of reduced environmental impact from the transportation sector. Does fewer cars on the road mean fewer miles driven? Reduced fuel consumption? Reduced emissions? I wonder....

Clearly, there are ample wheels rolling across Canada and the U.S. South of the border, there are 246 million registered motor vehicles and 209 million licensed drivers--that's roughly 5 vehicles for every 4 drivers. In Canada, the ratio is about 1 to 1. So there's a vehicle for every driver, can we conclude that we have enough vehicles. Surely we've reached a saturation point! Or have we?

Perhaps it's only people like me that have reached the saturation point. Personally I now own two vehicles --- one is my "industrial van" that I use when I am moving big loads (eg. from building materials to thousands of dollars in Christmas gifts for +150 children in Lennox and Addington County) and the other is a Toyota Matrix that gets used for business and personal travel. Total kilometres driven each year has gone down a bit but I sure use a lot less gas now than when I had just one vehicle (the van). Maybe I'm an anomaly... "more cars, less fuel". But two vehicles is definitely enough... especially when you have to pay two insurance premiums! That'll probably be the next big "drag" on automobile purchases... but I digress. The real question is: if households (of whatever size) reduce the number of vehicles they put on the road, will total vehicular travel go down? And will environmental impact follow suit? Or will we travel just as much by car but just do it with fewer vehicles?

I'll wager a guess that automobile ownership is highly segmented and that the total number of vehicles on the road will remain reasonably high. The reason is simple: we think we need them. Households with multiple wageearners will likely still feel the need to have multiple vehicles to get back and forth to work, and to run taxi service for children. And if they have -- and can keep --- their jobs, they'll probably keep multiple vehicles. If the second job disappears, so will the second vehicle. Young people who may have a difficult time finding jobs --- especially good jobs --- may have to forego automobile ownership for a couple more years. Public transit will work for a while... until they want to head to a buddy's cottage outside the city or help a friend move (or move themselves). Anyone whose business is moving "stuff" will likely still want their own vehicle. Tough to deliver a new high-efficiency washing machine by taking the bus! Even those "wired" young people -- at least the ones who are highly social --- may tire of a heavy diet of net traffic and find it wanting... can you REALLY get to know someone with SMS? Or even Skype?

My theory is there is likely a "floor" below which vehicle ownership will not fall because there's more to be done than the oft-cited example of moving urban commuters back and forth. Public transit does make sense in that situation.... if the commuter actually has that option. I don't know what that floor is but I suspect our fellow citizens will tell us with the decisions they make every day....